HeatPumpScore
Search
honest payback, every zip

Will a heat pump
pay for itself
in your house?

We ran the numbers on 278 U.S. zip codes — rebates, winter design temperature, gas vs. electric rates, the whole thermal envelope. The answer for your place is either a yes, a maybe, or a not yet. No upsell, no affiliate money, no warm fuzzy greenwash.

93
out of 100
In focus today
San Clemente, CA
NO BRAINER

Payback in 0.0 years. Net out-of-pocket $0 after a $3,500 rebate stack. 15-yr lifetime savings $1,455, plus a summer AC that actually cools.

Walk me through the numbers
the four answers

One verdict per zip. No wiggle words.

NO BRAINER20

Do it this quarter.

see all 20 →
SOLID YES61

Start the quotes.

see all 61 →
WORTH A LOOK95

Pencil it in.

see all 95 →
NOT YET102

Hold off.

see all 102 →

Verdict Tier Breakdown & Criteria

Verdict TierScore RangeZip CountTypical PaybackKey Drivers & Criteria
NO BRAINER85–10020< 6 yearsStacked HEAR/MassSave/utility rebates covering 60%+ install delta, high electric-over-fossil rate ratio.
SOLID YES65–84616–10 yearsFavorable rates, solid IRS §25C + utility rebate stack, reliable winter design temps.
WORTH A LOOK45–649510–14 yearsModerate savings, replacing aging dual system, marginal rebate stack.
NOT YET0–44102> 18 years / N/AHigh electricity vs cheap gas, design temp < -15°F without ccASHP models, or payback exceeds 18yr equipment life.
278
zip codes scored
48
states covered
5
federal data feeds
$0
in affiliate deals
Equipment

20 models, reviewed — no affiliate links.

Full catalog →
Bosch
IDS 2.0 Premium (Inverter Ducted Split)
HSPF2 9–10.5 · min -4°F
$6,500–$11,500
Carrier
Greenspeed Infinity 26
HSPF2 10.5–11.5 · min -5°F
$8,500–$14,500
Daikin
Aurora
HSPF2 10–11.2 · min -13°F
$3,400–$6,200
Daikin
Quaternity
HSPF2 9.8–10.8 · min 5°F
$3,800–$5,400
Cost

Real install dollars by scenario.

All scenarios →
Dual-fuel hybrid — heat pump + gas furnace backup
Best of both: HP runs ~30°F and above, gas furnace kicks in below. Avoids the cold-climate model premium in zones 5–6 where gas is cheap.
$8,000–$20,000~$2,200 rebates
Ducted heat pump retrofit — replacing a gas furnace + AC
The most common install: drop a ducted central heat pump into an existing forced-air plenum after the gas furnace reaches end of life.
$7,350–$19,100~$3,500 rebates
Ductless mini-split — for homes without existing ductwork
No ducts, no problem. One outdoor unit paired with 1–5 indoor heads mounted on walls or ceilings. Common in older New England stock, bungalows, apartments, additions.
$5,650–$21,200~$3,200 rebates
New construction — heat pump from day one
When you build, the HP is cheaper than a gas + AC combo. No fuel line install, one system instead of two, and duct design optimised for lower supply temperatures.
$10,350–$26,400~$2,500 rebates
where to start

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Glossary

The 27 terms on your quote, translated.

Full glossary →
From the desk

Latest news.

All articles →
Sep 3, 2026
Smart Heat-Pump Water Heaters Shift Demand to Cut Utility Costs
Compact 120V units and automated load shifting help households optimize time-of-use electric rates and avoid electrical panel upgrades.
Sep 2, 2026
Census Data Shows Heat Pumps Dominate New US Multifamily Construction
Electric heat pumps were installed in over half of newly completed multifamily units nationwide, surpassing fossil fuel systems.
Aug 30, 2026
Flexible 120-Volt Heat Pump Water Heaters Lower Retrofit Barriers
New plug-in models help homeowners bypass expensive main electrical panel upgrades while cutting domestic water heating energy consumption.
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48 states, ranked by score.