honest payback, every zip
Will a heat pump
pay for itself
in your house?
We ran the numbers on 278 U.S. zip codes — rebates, winter design temperature, gas vs. electric rates, the whole thermal envelope. The answer for your place is either a yes, a maybe, or a not yet. No upsell, no affiliate money, no warm fuzzy greenwash.
93
out of 100
In focus today
San Clemente, CA
NO BRAINERPayback in 0.0 years. Net out-of-pocket $0 after a $3,500 rebate stack. 15-yr lifetime savings $1,455, plus a summer AC that actually cools.
Walk me through the numbersthe four answers
One verdict per zip. No wiggle words.
Equipment
20 models, reviewed — no affiliate links.
Cost
Real install dollars by scenario.
Dual-fuel hybrid — heat pump + gas furnace backup
Best of both: HP runs ~30°F and above, gas furnace kicks in below. Avoids the cold-climate model premium in zones 5–6 where gas is cheap.
$8,000–$20,000~$2,200 rebates
Ducted heat pump retrofit — replacing a gas furnace + AC
The most common install: drop a ducted central heat pump into an existing forced-air plenum after the gas furnace reaches end of life.
$7,350–$19,100~$3,500 rebates
Ductless mini-split — for homes without existing ductwork
No ducts, no problem. One outdoor unit paired with 1–5 indoor heads mounted on walls or ceilings. Common in older New England stock, bungalows, apartments, additions.
$5,650–$21,200~$3,200 rebates
New construction — heat pump from day one
When you build, the HP is cheaper than a gas + AC combo. No fuel line install, one system instead of two, and duct design optimised for lower supply temperatures.
$10,350–$26,400~$2,500 rebates
where to start
Three ways in.
↯
Decide
Should I do this?
Glossary
The 27 terms on your quote, translated.
From the desk
Latest news.
Jul 22, 2026
Oil Inventory Swings Highlight Broader Energy Volatility
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported significant fluctuations in domestic crude oil and gasoline inventories for the week ending July 22, 2026.
Jul 21, 2026
Electric Heating and Heat Pumps Gain Record Market Share in New Homes
A new report indicates that electric heating and heat pumps achieved their highest-ever market share in newly constructed U.S. homes in 2024.
Jul 20, 2026
Power Ahead Colorado Offers $1,500 Heat Pump Incentive
A new program in the Denver metropolitan area provides a $1,500 rebate for homeowners and businesses installing qualifying cold-climate heat pumps, combinable with other existing incentives.
browse by state
48 states, ranked by score.
- CA20 · 93
- AZ12 · 83
- FL13 · 80
- TX18 · 72
- LA3 · 72
- MA10 · 72
- AL3 · 69
- GA10 · 67
- AR3 · 64
- SC5 · 63
- MD5 · 63
- NY8 · 61
- OK4 · 61
- NJ5 · 60
- MS2 · 60
- DE1 · 56
- NV5 · 55
- CT4 · 55
- WA12 · 54
- NC10 · 53
- MO6 · 53
- RI1 · 52
- OR7 · 51
- VA8 · 49
- NH3 · 44
- KY3 · 44
- TN8 · 43
- KS3 · 43
- PA8 · 40
- ME3 · 34
- NM2 · 33
- MI7 · 32
- IL7 · 29
- VT1 · 26
- OH8 · 26
- IA3 · 25
- CO9 · 25
- IN4 · 24
- NE3 · 24
- ID3 · 23
- UT6 · 23
- WY1 · 22
- MN9 · 21
- WI5 · 20
- SD1 · 19
- MT3 · 17
- ND2 · 16
- AK1 · 14