honest payback, every zip
Will a heat pump
pay for itself
in your house?
We ran the numbers on 278 U.S. zip codes — rebates, winter design temperature, gas vs. electric rates, the whole thermal envelope. The answer for your place is either a yes, a maybe, or a not yet. No upsell, no affiliate money, no warm fuzzy greenwash.
93
out of 100
In focus today
San Clemente, CA
NO BRAINERPayback in 0.0 years. Net out-of-pocket $0 after a $3,500 rebate stack. 15-yr lifetime savings $1,455, plus a summer AC that actually cools.
Walk me through the numbersthe four answers
One verdict per zip. No wiggle words.
Equipment
20 models, reviewed — no affiliate links.
Cost
Real install dollars by scenario.
Dual-fuel hybrid — heat pump + gas furnace backup
Best of both: HP runs ~30°F and above, gas furnace kicks in below. Avoids the cold-climate model premium in zones 5–6 where gas is cheap.
$8,000–$20,000~$2,200 rebates
Ducted heat pump retrofit — replacing a gas furnace + AC
The most common install: drop a ducted central heat pump into an existing forced-air plenum after the gas furnace reaches end of life.
$7,350–$19,100~$3,500 rebates
Ductless mini-split — for homes without existing ductwork
No ducts, no problem. One outdoor unit paired with 1–5 indoor heads mounted on walls or ceilings. Common in older New England stock, bungalows, apartments, additions.
$5,650–$21,200~$3,200 rebates
New construction — heat pump from day one
When you build, the HP is cheaper than a gas + AC combo. No fuel line install, one system instead of two, and duct design optimised for lower supply temperatures.
$10,350–$26,400~$2,500 rebates
where to start
Three ways in.
↯
Decide
Should I do this?
Glossary
The 27 terms on your quote, translated.
From the desk
Latest news.
Jun 5, 2026
DOE Guidance Restricts Gas-to-Electric Appliance Rebates
New Department of Energy guidance prohibits federal home energy rebate funds from being used for projects that switch from fossil fuel appliances to electric alternatives, altering a key aspect of the Inflation Reduction Act's original intent.
Jun 4, 2026
DOE Reinstates Home Energy Rebates, Excludes Gas-to-Electric Conversions
The Department of Energy has resumed funding for federal HVAC rebate programs, but new guidance prohibits rebates for homeowners switching from natural gas to electric heating systems.
Jun 3, 2026
DOE Rebate Guidance Undermines Home Electrification Goals
New Department of Energy rules for Inflation Reduction Act home energy rebates eliminate incentives for homeowners switching from fossil fuel appliances to electric heat pumps.
browse by state
48 states, ranked by score.
- CA20 · 93
- AZ12 · 83
- FL13 · 80
- TX18 · 72
- LA3 · 72
- MA10 · 72
- AL3 · 69
- GA10 · 67
- AR3 · 64
- SC5 · 63
- MD5 · 63
- NY8 · 61
- OK4 · 61
- NJ5 · 60
- MS2 · 60
- DE1 · 56
- NV5 · 55
- CT4 · 55
- WA12 · 54
- NC10 · 53
- MO6 · 53
- RI1 · 52
- OR7 · 51
- VA8 · 49
- NH3 · 44
- KY3 · 44
- TN8 · 43
- KS3 · 43
- PA8 · 40
- ME3 · 34
- NM2 · 33
- MI7 · 32
- IL7 · 29
- VT1 · 26
- OH8 · 26
- IA3 · 25
- CO9 · 25
- IN4 · 24
- NE3 · 24
- ID3 · 23
- UT6 · 23
- WY1 · 22
- MN9 · 21
- WI5 · 20
- SD1 · 19
- MT3 · 17
- ND2 · 16
- AK1 · 14